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Sonoma, Marin, and Mendocino, Solano, Napa, San Francisco, County Short Sale, Foreclosure Information.

New Information about Tax relief for Short Sales.

For a list of available Shortsale Properties click here

New information regarding tax liabilities from the IRS

Information on non-recourse loans and your 1099

Useful Tax Forms

Financial Crisis

TAX BREAK FOR MORTGAGE DEBT FORGIVENESS
President Bush signed into law today a new measure giving tax breaks to homeowners who have mortgage debt forgiven. Under preexisting law, the debt forgiven by a lender, such as for short sales and refinances, was generally taxable to the borrower as debt discharge income. With the passage of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007, a taxpayer does not have to pay federal income tax on debt forgiven for a loan secured by a qualified principal residence.

This tax break applies to debts discharged from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009. Qualified principal residence indebtedness is debt incurred in acquiring, constructing, or substantially improving the residence (up to $2 million for refinances).

For purposes of calculating capital gains, any debts discharged excluded from income under the new law must be subtracted from the basis of the taxpayer's principal residence (but not below zero). However, taxpayers may generally exclude from capital gains income up to $250,000 (or $500,000 for married couples filing jointly) for properties owned and used as their principal residence for at least two of the last five years.

For a copy of the  Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 , go to http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h110-3648 .

Short Sales

A short sale occurs when you agree to sell property you do not own (or own but do not wish to sell). You make this type of sale in two steps.

  • You sell short. You borrow property and deliver it to a buyer.

  • You close the sale. At a later date, you either buy substantially identical property and deliver it to the lender or make delivery out of property that you held at the time of the sale. Delivery of property borrowed from another lender does not satisfy this requirement.


You do not realize gain or loss until delivery of property to close the short sale. You will have a capital gain or loss if the property used to close the short sale is a capital asset.

Exception if property becomes worthless.   A different rule applies if the property sold short becomes substantially worthless. In that case, you must recognize gain as if the short sale were closed when the property became substantially worthless.

Exception for constructive sales.   Entering into a short sale may cause you to be treated as having made a constructive sale of property. In that case, you will have to recognize gain on the date of the constructive sale. For details, see Constructive Sales of Appreciated Financial Positions, earlier.

Example.

On May 3, 2006, you bought 100 shares of Baker Corporation stock for $1,000. On September 3, 2006, you sold short 100 shares of similar Baker stock for $1,600. You made no other transactions involving Baker stock for the rest of 2006 and the first 30 days of 2007. Your short sale is treated as a constructive sale of an appreciated financial position because a sale of your Baker stock on the date of the short sale would have resulted in a gain. You recognize a $600 short-term capital gain from the constructive sale and your new holding period in the Baker stock begins on September 3.

Short-Term or Long-Term Capital Gain or Loss

As a general rule, you determine whether you have short-term or long-term capital gain or loss on a short sale by the amount of time you actually hold the property eventually delivered to the lender to close the short sale.

Example.

Even though you do not own any stock of the Ace Corporation, you contract to sell 100 shares of it, which you borrow from your broker. After 13 months, when the price of the stock has risen, you buy 100 shares of Ace Corporation stock and immediately deliver them to your broker to close out the short sale. Your loss is a short-term capital loss because your holding period for the delivered property is less than 1 day.

Special rules.   Special rules may apply to gains and losses from short sales of stocks, securities, and commodity and securities futures (other than certain straddles) if you held or acquired property substantially identical to property that sold short. But if the amount of property you sold short is more than the amount of that substantially identical property, the special rules do not apply to the gain or loss on the excess.

Gains and holding period.   If you held the substantially identical property for 1 year or less on the date of the short sale, or if you acquired the substantially identical property after the short sale and by the date of closing the short sale, then:

Rule 1. Your gain, if any, when you close the short sale is a short-term capital gain, and
Rule 2. The holding period of the substantially identical property begins on the date of the closing of the short sale or on the date of the sale of this property, whichever comes first.

Losses.   If, on the date of the short sale, you held substantially identical property for more than 1 year, any loss you realize on the short sale is a long-term capital loss, even if you held the property used to close the sale for 1 year or less. Certain losses on short sales of stock or securities are also subject to wash sale treatment. For information, see Wash Sales , later.

Mixed straddles.   Under certain elections, you can avoid the treatment of loss from a short sale as long term under the special rule. These elections are for positions that are part of a mixed straddle. See Other elections under Mixed Straddle Elections , later, for more information about these elections.

Reporting Substitute Payments

If any broker transferred your securities for use in a short sale, or similar transaction, and received certain substitute dividend payments on your behalf while the short sale was open, that broker must give you a Form 1099-MISC or a similar statement, reporting the amount of these payments. Form 1099-MISC must be used for those substitute payments totaling $10 or more that are known on the payment's record date to be in lieu of an exempt-interest dividend, a capital gain dividend, a return of capital distribution, or a dividend subject to a foreign tax credit, or that are in lieu of tax-exempt interest. Do not treat these substitute payments as dividends or interest. Instead, report the substitute payments shown on Form 1099-MISC as “ Other income ” on line 21 of Form 1040.

Substitute payment.   A substitute payment means a payment in lieu of:
  • Tax-exempt interest (including OID) that has accrued while the short sale was open, and

  • A dividend, if the ex-dividend date is after the transfer of stock for use in a short sale and before the closing of the short sale.

Payments in lieu of dividends.   If you borrow stock to make a short sale, you may have to remit to the lender payments in lieu of the dividends distributed while you maintain your short position. You can deduct these payments only if you hold the short sale open at least 46 days (more than 1 year in the case of an extraordinary dividend as defined below) and you itemize your deductions.   You deduct these payments as investment interest on Schedule A (Form 1040). See Interest Expenses in chapter 3 for more information.   If you close the short sale by the 45th day after the date of the short sale (1 year or less in the case of an extraordinary dividend), you cannot deduct the payment in lieu of the dividend that you make to the lender. Instead, you must increase the basis of the stock used to close the short sale by that amount.   To determine how long a short sale is kept open, do not include any period during which you hold, have an option to buy, or are under a contractual obligation to buy substantially identical stock or securities.   If your payment is made for a liquidating distribution or nontaxable stock distribution, or if you buy more shares equal to a stock distribution issued on the borrowed stock during your short position, you have a capital expense. You must add the payment to the cost of the stock sold short.

Exception.   If you close the short sale within 45 days, the deduction for amounts you pay in lieu of dividends will be disallowed only to the extent the payments are more than the amount that you receive as ordinary income from the lender of the stock for the use of collateral with the short sale. This exception does not apply to payments in place of extraordinary dividends.

Extraordinary dividends.   If the amount of any dividend you receive on a share of preferred stock equals or exceeds 5% (10% in the case of other stock) of the amount realized on the short sale, the dividend you receive is an extraordinary dividend.

Special Web Section Unveiled for Homeowners Who Lose Homes; Foreclosure Tax Relief Available to Many

IR-2007-159, Sept. 17, 2007

WASHINGTON — The Internal Revenue Service unveiled a special new section today on IRS.gov for people who have lost their homes due to foreclosure. The IRS also reassured homeowners that, although mortgage workouts and foreclosures can have tax consequences, special relief provisions can often reduce or eliminate the tax bite for financially strapped borrowers who lose their homes.

The new section of IRS.gov includes a variety of information, including a worksheet designed to help borrowers determine whether any of the foreclosure-related relief provisions apply to them. For those taxpayers who find they owe additional tax, it also includes a form they can use to request a payment agreement with the IRS. . In some cases, eligible taxpayers may qualify to settle their tax debt for less than the full amount due using an offer-in-compromise.

The IRS urges struggling homeowners to consider their options carefully before giving up their homes through foreclosure.

Under the tax law, if the debt wiped out through foreclosure exceeds the value of the property, the difference is normally taxable income.   But a special rule allows insolvent borrowers to offset that income to the extent their liabilities exceed their assets.

The IRS cautions that under the law, relief may be limited or unavailable in some situations where, for example, part or all of a home was ever used for business or rented out.

Borrowers whose debt is reduced or eliminated receive a year-end statement (Form 1099-C) from their lender.   By law, this form must show the amount of debt forgiven and the fair market value of property given up through foreclosure. Though the winning bid at a foreclosure auction is normally a property's fair market value, it may not necessarily reflect its true value in some cases.

The IRS urges borrowers to check the Form 1099-C carefully. They should notify the lender immediately if any of the information shown on their form is incorrect. Borrowers should pay particular attention to the amount of debt forgiven (Box 2) and the value listed for their home (Box 7).

The IRS also reminds lenders of their obligation to provide accurate information on the Form 1099-C.   By law, the lender must send a copy of this form to the IRS. IRS follow-up contacts with taxpayers involved in foreclosure are based largely on the information reported on this form, and whether it conflicts with information provided by the taxpayer on their federal income tax return.

The IRS normally initiates these follow-up contacts by sending the borrower a notice.   The tax agency urges borrowers with questions to call the phone number shown on the notice.  The IRS also urges borrowers who wind up owing additional tax and are unable to pay it in full to use the installment agreement form, normally included with the notice, to request a payment agreement with the agency.

 

Questions and Answers on Home Foreclosure, Short Sales, and Debt Cancellation

1. What is Cancellation of Debt?

If you borrow money from a commercial lender and the lender later cancels or forgives the debt (short sale), you may have to include the cancelled amount in income for tax purposes, depending on the circumstances. When you borrowed the money you were not required to include the loan proceeds in income because you had an obligation to repay the lender. When that obligation is subsequently forgiven, the amount you received as loan proceeds is reportable as income because you no longer have an obligation to repay the lender. The lender is usually required to report the amount of the canceled debt to you and the IRS on a Form 1099-C, Cancellation of Debt.

Here's a very simplified example. You borrow $10,000 and default on the loan after paying back $2,000. If the lender is unable to collect the remaining debt from you, there is a cancellation of debt of $8,000, which generally is taxable income to you.

2. Is Cancellation of Debt income always taxable?

Not always.  There are some exceptions.  The most common situations when cancellation of debt income is not taxable involve:

  • Bankruptcy: Debts discharged through bankruptcy are not considered taxable income.
  • Insolvency: If you are insolvent when the debt is cancelled, some or all of the cancelled debt may not be taxable to you.You are insolvent when your total debts are more than the fair market value of your total assets.Insolvency can be fairly complex to determine and the assistance of a tax professional is recommended if you believe you qualify for this exception.
  • Certain farm debts:If you incurred the debt directly in operation of a farm, more than half your income from the prior three years was from farming, and the loan was owed to a person or agency regularly engaged in lending, your cancelled debt is generally not considered taxable income.The rules applicable to farmers are complex and the assistance of a tax professional is recommended if you believe you qualify for this exception.
  • Non-recourse loans:A non-recourse loan is a loan for which the lender's only remedy in case of default is to repossess the property being financed or used as collateral.That is, the lender cannot pursue you personally in case of default.Forgiveness of a non-recourse loan resulting from a foreclosure does not result in cancellation of debt income.However, it may result in other tax consequences, as discussed in Question 3 below.

3. I lost my home through foreclosure.  Are there tax consequences?  

There are two possible consequences you must consider: 

  • Taxable cancellation of debt income.(Note: As stated above, cancellation of debt income is not taxable in the case of non-recourse loans.)
  • A reportable gain from the disposition of the home (because foreclosures are treated like sales for tax purposes).(Note: Often some or all of the gain from the sale of a personal residence qualifies for exclusion from income.)

Use the following steps to compute the income to be reported from a foreclosure:

Step 1 - Figuring Cancellation of Debt Income (Note: For non-recourse loans, skip this section.  You have no income from cancellation of debt.)

1. Enter the total amount of the debt immediately prior to the foreclosure.___________
2. Enter the fair market value of the property from Form 1099-C, box 7. ___________
3. Subtract line 2 from line 1.If less than zero, enter zero.___________

The amount on line 3 will generally equal the amount shown in box 2 of Form 1099-C.  This amount is taxable unless you meet one of the exceptions in question 2.  Enter it on line 21, Other Income, of your Form 1040.

Step 2 – Figuring Gain from Foreclosure

4. Enter the fair market value of the property foreclosed. For non-recourse loans, enter the amount of the debt immediately prior to the foreclosure ________
5.    Enter your adjusted basis in the property. (Usually your purchase price plus the cost of any major improvements.)                                    ____________
6. Subtract line 5 from line 4.  If less than zero, enter zero.   

The amount on line 6 is your gain from the foreclosure of your home.  If you have owned and used the home as your principal residence for periods totaling at least two years during the five year period ending on the date of the foreclosure, you may exclude up to $250,000 (up to $500,000 for married couples filing a joint return) from income.  If you do not qualify for this exclusion, or your gain exceeds $250,000 ($500,000 for married couples filing a joint return), report the taxable amount on Schedule D, Capital Gains and Losses.

4. I lost money on the foreclosure of my home.  Can I claim a loss on my tax return? 

No.  Losses from the sale or foreclosure of personal property are not deductible.  


5.  Can you provide examples?

A borrower bought a home in August 2005 and lived in it until it was taken through foreclosure in September 2007. The original purchase price was $170,000, the home is worth $200,000 at foreclosure, and the mortgage debt canceled at foreclosure is $220,000. At the time of the foreclosure, the borrower is insolvent, with liabilities (mortgage, credit cards, car loans and other debts) totaling $250,000 and assets totaling $230,000.

The borrower figures income from the foreclosure as follows:

Use the following steps to compute the income to be reported from a foreclosure:

Step 1 - Figuring Cancellation of Debt Income (Note: For non-recourse loans, skip this section.  You have no income from cancellation of debt.)

1. Enter the total amount of the debt immediately prior to the foreclosure.___$220,000__
2. Enter the fair market value of the property from Form 1099-C, box 7. ___$200,000__
3. Subtract line 2 from line 1.If less than zero, enter zero.___$20,000__

The amount on line 3 will generally equal the amount shown in box 2 of Form 1099-C.  This amount is taxable unless you meet one of the exceptions in question 2.  Enter it on line 21, Other Income, of your Form 1040.

Step 2 – Figuring Gain from Foreclosure

4. Enter the fair market value of the property foreclosed.For non-recourse loans, enter the amount of the debt immediately prior to the foreclosure. __$200,000__
5.  Enter your adjusted basis in the property.(Usually your purchase price plus the cost of any major improvements.)                                        ___$170,000__
6. Subtract line 5 from line 4.If less than zero, enter zero.___$30,000__

The amount on line 6 is your gain from the foreclosure of your home.  If you have owned and used the home as your principal residence for periods totaling at least two years during the five year period ending on the date of the foreclosure, you may exclude up to $250,000 (up to $500,000 for married couples filing a joint return) from income.  If you do not qualify for this exclusion, or your gain exceeds $250,000 ($500,000 for married couples filing a joint return), report the taxable amount on Schedule D, Capital Gains and Losses.

In this situation, the borrower has a tax-free home-sale gain of $30,000 ($200,000 minus $170,000), because they owned and lived in their home as a principal residence for at least two years. Ordinarily, the borrower would also have taxable debt-forgiveness income of $20,000 ($220,000 minus $200,000). But since the borrower's liabilities exceed assets by $20,000 ($250,000 minus $230,000) there is no tax on the canceled debt.

Other examples can be found in IRS Publication 544, Sales and Other Dispositions of Assets, under the section “Foreclosures and Repossessions”.

6.  I don't agree with the information on the Form 1099-C.  What should I do?

Contact the lender.  The lender should issue a corrected form if the information is determined to be incorrect.  Retain all records related to the purchase of your home and all related debt.

7.  I received a notice from the IRS on this. What should I do?

The IRS urges borrowers with questions to call the phone number shown on the notice. The IRS also urges borrowers who wind up owing additional tax and are unable to pay it in full to use the installment agreement form, normally included with the notice, to request a payment agreement with the agency.

 


 

THE FINANCIAL TSUNAMI
Part 1: Deutsche Bank's Painful Lesson
by F. William Engdahl
November 24, 2007

Even experienced banker friends tell me that they think the worst of the US banking troubles are over and that things are slowly getting back to normal. What is lacking in their rosy optimism is the realization of the scale of the ongoing deterioration in credit markets globally, centered in the American asset-backed securities market, and especially in the market for CDOs—Collateralized Debt Obligations and CMOs—Collateralized Mortgage Obligations. By now every serious reader has heard the term “It's a crisis in Sub-Prime US home mortgage debt.” What almost no one I know understands is that the Sub-Prime problem is but the tip of a colossal iceberg that is in a slow meltdown. I offer one recent example to illustrate my point that the “Financial Tsunami” is only beginning.

Deutsche Bank got a hard shock a few days ago when a judge in the state of Ohio in the USA made a ruling that the bank had no legal right to foreclose on 14 homes whose owners had failed to keep current in their monthly mortgage payments. Now this might sound like small beer for Deutsche Bank, one of the world's largest banks with over €1.1 trillion (Billionen) in assets worldwide. As Hilmar Kopper used to say, “peanuts.” It's not at all peanuts, however, for the Anglo-Saxon banking world and its European allies like Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Barclays Bank, HSBC or others. Why?

A US Federal Judge, C.A. Boyko in Federal District Court in Cleveland , Ohio ruled to dismiss a claim by Deutsche Bank National Trust Company. DB's US subsidiary was seeking to take possession of 14 homes from Cleveland residents living in them, in order to claim the assets.

Here comes the hair in the soup. The Judge asked DB to show documents proving legal title to the 14 homes. DB could not. All DB attorneys could show was a document showing only an “intent to convey the rights in the mortgages.” They could not produce the actual mortgage, the heart of Western property rights since the Magna Charta of not longer.

Again why could Deutsche Bank not show the 14 mortgages on the 14 homes? Because they live in the exotic new world of “global securitization”, where banks like DB or Citigroup buy tens of thousands of mortgages from small local lending banks, “bundle” them into Jumbo new securities which then are rated by Moody's or Standard & Poors or Fitch, and sell them as bonds to pension funds or other banks or private investors who naively believed they were buying bonds rated AAA, the highest, and never realized that their “bundle” of say 1,000 different home mortgages, contained maybe 20% or 200 mortgages rated “sub-prime,” i.e. of dubious credit quality.

Indeed the profits being earned in the past seven years by the world's largest financial players from Goldman Sachs to Morgan Stanley to HSBC, Chase, and yes, Deutsche Bank, were so staggering, few bothered to open the risk models used by the professionals who bundled the mortgages. Certainly not the Big Three rating companies who had a criminal conflict of interest in giving top debt ratings. That changed abruptly last August and since then the major banks have issued one after another report of disastrous “sub-prime” losses.

A new unexpected factor

The Ohio ruling that dismissed DB's claim to foreclose and take back the 14 homes for non-payment, is far more than bad luck for the bank of Josef Ackermann. It is an earth-shaking precedent for all banks holding what they had thought were collateral in form of real estate property.

How this? Because of the complex structure of asset-backed securities and the widely dispersed ownership of mortgage securities (not actual mortgages but the securities based on same) no one is yet able to identify who precisely holds the physical mortgage document. Oops! A tiny legal detail our Wall Street Rocket Scientist derivatives experts ignored when they were bundling and issuing hundreds of billions of dollars worth of CMO's in the past six or seven years . As of January 2007 some $6.5 trillion of securitized mortgage debt was outstanding in the United States . That's a lot by any measure!

In the Ohio case Deutsche Bank is acting as “Trustee” for “securitization pools” or groups of disparate investors who may reside anywhere. But the Trustee never got the legal document known as the mortgage. Judge Boyko ordered DB to prove they were the owners of the mortgages or notes and they could not. DB could only argue that the banks had foreclosed on such cases for years without challenge. The Judge then declared that the banks “seem to adopt the attitude that since they have been doing this for so long, unchallenged, this practice equates with legal compliance. Finally put to the test,” the Judge concluded, “their weak legal arguments compel the court to stop them at the gate.” Deutsche Bank has refused comment.

What next?

As news of this legal precedent spreads across the USA like a California brushfire, hundreds of thousands of struggling homeowners who took the bait in times of historically low interest rates to buy a home with often, no money paid down, and the first 2 years with extremely low interest rate in what are known as “interest only” Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs), now face exploding mortgage monthly payments at just the point the US economy is sinking into severe recession. (I regret the plethora of abbreviations used here but it is the fault of Wall Street bankers not this author).

The peak period of the US real estate bubble which began in about 2002 when Alan Greenspan began the most aggressive series of rate cuts in Federal Reserve history was 2005-2006. Greenspan's intent, as he admitted at the time, was to replace the Dot.com internet stock bubble with a real estate home investment and lending bubble. He argued that was the only way to keep the US economy from deep recession. In retrospect a recession in 2002 would have been far milder and less damaging than what we now face.

Of course, Greenspan has since safely retired, written his memoirs and handed the control (and blame) of the mess over to a young ex-Princeton professor, Ben Bernanke. As a Princeton graduate, I can say I would never trust monetary policy for the world's most powerful central bank in the hands of a Princeton economics professor. Keep them in their ivy-covered towers.

Now the last phase of every speculative bubble is the one where the animal juices get the most excited. This has been the case with every major speculative bubble since the Holland Tulip speculation of the 1630's to the South Sea Bubble of 1720 to the 1929 Wall Street crash. It was true as well with the US 2002-2007 Real Estate bubble. In the last two years of the boom in selling real estate loans, banks were convinced they could resell the mortgage loans to a Wall Street financial house who would bundle it with thousands of good better and worse quality mortgage loans and resell them as Collateralized Mortgage Obligation bonds. In the flush of greed, banks became increasingly reckless of the credit worthiness of the prospective home owners. In many cases they did not even bother to check if the person was employed. Who cares? It will be resold and securitized and the risk of mortgage default was historically low.

That was in 2005. The most Sub-prime mortgages written with Adjustable Rate Mortgage contracts were written between 2005-2006, the last and most furious phase of the US bubble. Now a whole new wave of mortgage defaults is about to explode onto the scene beginning January 2008. Between December 2007 and July 1, 2008 more than $690 Billion in mortgages will face an interest rate jump according to the contract terms of the ARMs written two years before. That means market interest rates for those mortgages will explode monthly payments just as recession drives incomes down. Hundreds of thousands of homeowners will be forced to do the last resort of any homeowner: stop monthly mortgage payments.

Here is where the Ohio court decision guarantees that the next phase of the US mortgage crisis will assume Tsunami dimension. If the Ohio Deutsche Bank precedent holds in the appeal to the Supreme Court, millions of homes will be in default but the banks prevented from seizing them as collateral assets to resell. Robert Shiller of Yale, the controversial and often correct author of the book, Irrational Exuberance , predicting the 2001-2 Dot.com stock crash, estimates US housing prices could fall as much as 50% in some areas given how home prices have diverged relative to rents.

The $690 billion worth of “interest only” ARMs due for interest rate hike between now and July 2008 are by and large not Sub-prime but a little higher quality, but only just. There are a total of $1.4 trillion in “interest only” ARMs according to the US research firm, First American Loan Performance. A recent study calculates that, as these ARMs face staggering higher interest costs in the next 9 months, more than $325 billion of the loans will default leaving 1 million property owners in technical mortgage default. But if banks are unable to reclaim the homes as assets to offset the non-performing mortgages, the US banking system and a chunk of the global banking system faces a financial gridlock that will make events to date truly “peanuts” by comparison. We will discuss the global geo-political implications of this in our next report, The Financial Tsunami: Part 2.

Big Discounts, Expanded Hours, More Foreclosures  by Mike Shedlock

Despite Economy, Malls and Stores Jammed as Stores Usher in Holiday Shopping Season With Big Discounts , Expanded Hours in Tough Economy.

Malls and stores were jammed for pre-dawn discounts on everything from TVs to toys on the official start of Christmas shopping as consumers shrugged off worries about rising gas prices and falling home values.

The aggressive tactics -- bigger discounts and expanded hours like midnight openings -- apparently worked Friday. Based on early reports, Macy's Inc., Toys "R" Us, K-B Toys Inc. and others that pushed big price cuts, reported bigger crowds for the early morning bargains than a year ago. Target Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc., said they were also pleased with the shopper turnout.

My Comment: It's a bit premature to suggest that anything "worked". The key, at least for stores is whether or not they are making any money, and what happens for the rest of the shopping season. Are stores making up for what they are losing on loss leaders? Somehow I doubt it. The next question is "What is the default rate going to be on this shopping spree."

"I'm really looking for the bargains this year because I'm losing my job; they're moving our plant to Mexico after the first of the year, so I have to be careful," said Tina Dillow of New Richmond, Ohio, who camped out at a Best Buy store near Cincinnati at 3 a.m. because of a great deal on a laptop.

My Comment: Thanks Tina, for the laugh of the day. You are out of a job but were camping out overnight to buy a new laptop. That's a well thought out strategy.

"The tougher economic conditions are driving more shoppers to take advantage of early bird specials," said C. Britt Beemer, chairman of America 's Research Group.

Marshal Cohen, chief analyst at NPD Group Inc. agreed, but he noted shoppers were buying selectively.

Best Buy Co. drew more than a thousand shoppers to West Paterson , N.J. and to its Manhattan store for early morning bargains on Sony laptop computers, cut to $399.99 from $749.99, and GPS devices from TomTom for $119.99, from the normal $249.99, according to store managers.

My Comment: Selective buying of loss leaders is not going to do much for store profits.

New Wave of Mortgage Failures Could Create a Nightmare Economic Scenario

As shoppers shop till they drop, Borrowers who took out loans in the first six months of this year are already falling behind on their payments faster than those who took out loans in 2006 as the Nightmare Economic Scenario unfolds.

In the months ahead, millions of adjustable-rate mortgages will reset, leaving many homeowners unable to make their payments. Soaring mortgage default rates this year already have shaken major financial institutions and the fallout from more of them, some experts say, could spread from those already battered banks into the general economy.

"We haven't faced a downturn like this since the Depression," said Bill Gross, chief investment officer of PIMCO, the world's biggest bond fund. He's not suggesting anything like those terrible times -- but, as an expert on the global credit crisis, he speaks with authority.

"Its effect on consumption, its effect on future lending attitudes, could bring us close to the zero line in terms of economic growth," he said. "It does keep me up at night."

Some of the nation's leading economic minds lay out a scenario that is frightening. Not only would the next wave of the mortgage crisis force people out of their homes, it might also spiral throughout the economy.

My Comment: "Might" is not the right word. "Will" is the right word.

The already severe housing slump would be exacerbated by even more empty homes on the market, causing prices to plunge by up to 40 percent in once-hot real estate spots such as California , Nevada and Florida . Builders like Chicago 's Neumann Homes, which filed for bankruptcy protection this month, could go under. The top 10 global banks, which repackage loans into exotic securities such as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, could suffer far greater write-offs than the $75 billion already taken this year.

My Comment: "Could" is the wrong word. "Will" is the right word. For more on what the amount is likely to be, please see How Much Will The Credit Crunch Cost?

Massive job losses would curtail consumer spending that makes up two-thirds of the economy. The Labor Department estimates almost 100,000 financial services jobs related to credit and lending in the U.S. have already been lost, from local bank loan officers to traders dealing in mortgage-backed securities. Thousands of Americans who work in the housing industry could find themselves on the dole. And there's no telling how that would affect car dealers, retailers and others dependent on consumer paychecks.

My Comment: Of course there's a way to tell how it will affect car sales, etc. Car sales are going to plunge. This will put companies like General Motors who cannot make a profit now in dire straights. For more on GM please see Desperation at GMAC and Implications of GM's non-cash writeoff .

Based on historical models, zero growth in the U.S. gross domestic product would take the current unemployment rate to 6.4 percent. That would wipe out about 3 million jobs from the economy, according to the Washington-based Economic Policy Institute.

By comparison, in the last big downturn between 2001-03 some 2 million jobs were lost, according to the Labor Department. The dot-com bust early this decade decimated the technology sector, while the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks hurt the transportation and allied industries. Economists said the country was officially in recession from March to November of 2001, but the aftermath stretched to 2003.

My Comment: The housing boom was of unprecedented size. The buts will be similar. Thus the historical models on unemployment rate are far too conservative. Expect the unemployment rate to way overshoot current projections.

There is increasing evidence that another downturn has begun.

Borrowers who took out loans in the first six months of this year are already falling behind on their payments faster than those who took out loans in 2006, according to a report from Arlington, Va.-based investment bank Friedman, Billings Ramsey. That's making it even harder for would-be buyers to get new mortgages -- a frightening prospect for home builders with projects going begging on the market, and for homeowners desperate to unload property to avoid defaulting on their loans.

Meanwhile, the number of U.S. homes in foreclosure is expected to keep soaring after more than doubling during the third quarter from a year earlier, to 446,726 homes nationwide, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac Inc. That's one foreclosure filing for every 196 households in the nation, a 34 percent jump from just three months earlier.

Such data suggests more Americans could lose their homes than ever before, and those in peril are people who never thought they'd welsh on a mortgage payment. They come from a broad swath -- teachers, pharmacists, and civil servants who were lured by enticing mortgage terms.

My Comment: The best thing for most of these people is to lose their home and start all over. There is nothing worse than being a debt slave forever. Competent financial counselors should be encouraging people to walk away. I talked about this in Sign Waving Demonstrators Picket Countrywide Financial .

Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., a key member of Senate finance and banking committees, said borrowers are the ones who need relief. The playbook to bail out the economy would not be applied to the banks and mortgage originators, but money could be funneled through non-profit organizations to homeowners that need help, he said in an interview with The Associated Press.

"There is a worst-case scenario because housing is the linchpin of our economy, and more foreclosures make prices go down, that creates more foreclosures, and creates a vicious cycle," Schumer said. "You add that to the other weakness in the economy -- on one end is the home sector and the other is the financial sector -- and it could create a real problem."

He also believes Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should do more to help the economy. Bernanke said in recent comments he has no direct plans to bail out the mortgage industry, but to instead offer relief through cheap interest rates and further liquidity injections into the banking system.

My Comment: Sen. Charles Schumer is a complete fool. 1% interest rates caused the problem. 1% interest rates will not be the solution.

"We all know that more hits from these subprime loans are coming, but are having a devil of a time figuring out how it will happen or how to stop it," said Lawler, who was once chief economist for Fannie Mae.

"We've never been in this situation before."

Indeed we have never been in this situation before because never before in history has the Congress, the Fed, and central bankers worldwide acted as recklessly as they have and still continue to act. Judging from what Schumer wants to do, we are going to keep at it until the whole economic system collapses.

Happy Shopping

 

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